The points total MK Dons could need to secure automatic promotion and the League Two title
Dons sit second with nine games to go, seven points safe in the automatic promotion places
MK Dons took a huge step towards automatic promotion on Saturday with their 2-1 win over Swindon Town.
Paul Warne’s side won their 20th game out of 37 this season, with 11 draws putting them on 71 points with nine games remaining.
As it stands, they sit two points adrift of leaders Bromley and three points ahead of Cambridge United in third, though the U’s have a game in hand. Crucially, Dons capitalised on Notts County’s defeat to Chesterfield in the earlier kick-off at Meadow Lane, meaning Marvin Ekpiteta’s goal 11 minutes from time at the County Ground moved them seven points away from the play-off zone below.
But with 27 points in the offing between now and the end of the season, there is still plenty of football to be played, and potential twists and turns too. The win, however, has put them in a strong position to go and secure automatic promotion.
Currently with 71 points on the board, Dons could feasibly end the season with 98 points, should they win all nine of their remaining games. While that would certainly be enough in the current landscape, it would only be the second-highest total of the last decade, falling a point shy of Northampton Town’s emphatic 2015/16 season total of 99 points.
At the moment, Dons’ average points per game is 1.92. When the 2019/20 season was curtailed due to Covid, that score was enough to secure the league title for Swindon Town, with the Robins having 68 points to their name after 36 games - the same number Dons had prior to Saturday’s game in Wiltshire.
Over the last ten years, the lowest number of points needed to secure promotion was 78 and that came last season courtesy of Bradford City, led by ex-Dons boss Graham Alexander, when their final day heroics saw them snatch third spot from Walsall at the death.
When Dons were promoted in third place in 2018/19 under Paul Tisdale, their final day win over Mansfield Town ensured their spot in League One with 79 points. Their total of 78 points in 2023/24, when they finished fourth and qualified for the play-offs, though the less said about that the better. Mansfield’s 86 points that season though was the highest in the last ten years for a third place finish.
On (mean) average over the last ten completed seasons, 82.4 points have been required to secure the final automatic promotion spot. That would mean Dons would need just 12 more points this season to secure third place.
Last season, that total would have been enough for second place, when 84 was enough for Doncaster Rovers to lift the League Two trophy. Not the lowest though, Cheltenham won the league the the behind-closed-doors campaign of 2020/21, going up with 82 points - a total which in six out of the last ten years would not have been enough to see them automatically promoted.
Based on the last ten full seasons, 89 points has been the (mean) average total needed to win the title, which would need another 18 points for Dons in the remaining fixtures to reach. And with their average of 1.92 points per game, they would be on course to reach 88.
The first and only time they got their hands on the league title, Paul Ince’s Dons won with 97 points in 2007/08, when they also did the double with the Johnstone’s Paint Trophy at Wembley.